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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

South Carolina St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:331
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:110


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22331.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Carolina St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wisconsin (114.0)B10A85-50L0%0.0
11-12Boston College (96.0)ACCA91-52L0%0.0
11-14Yale (183.0)IvyA86-54L0%0.0
11-17UCLA (36.0)P12A96-68L0%0.0
11-21Central Arkansas (223.0)SlndH64-73L0%0.0
11-26Winthrop (173.0)BSthA86-61L0%0.0
12-2North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA103-71L0%0.0
12-5Presbyterian (319.0)BSthA88-77L0%0.0
12-9Furman (97.0)SCA101-72L0%0.0
12-12Charleston Southern (261.0)BSthH91-88W100%0.0
12-16Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH83-74W100%0.0
12-19College of Charleston (57.0)CAAA80-64L0%0.0
12-21UCF (84.0)AmerA89-64L0%0.0
1-3Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA86-80L0%0.0
1-6Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA60-63W100%0.0
1-13Howard (339.0)MEACH91-88W100%0.0
1-15Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH66-62W100%0.0
1-20Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH54-78L0%0.0
1-22Hampton (237.0)MEACH84-91L0%0.0
1-27Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA73-65L0%0.0
1-29Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA59-74W100%0.0
2-3Savannah St. (197.0)MEACA111-99L0%0.0
2-5Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH60-84L0%0.0
2-10North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH90-85W100%0.0
2-17Hampton (237.0)MEACA79-66L0%0.0
2-19Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA76-62L0%0.0
2-24North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH102-79W100%0.0
2-26Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA76-74L0%0.0
3-1Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH81-94L0%0.0
3-6Morgan St. (327.0)MEACN83-80L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Carolina St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Carolina St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Carolina St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South Carolina St.MEAC26.0926.0926.6726.67-12.17-12.17
HamptonMEAC3.983.9848.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Morgan St.MEAC3.953.9535.7135.71-1.13-1.13
Savannah St.MEAC3.933.9339.2939.29-0.84-0.84
Norfolk St.MEAC3.933.9339.2939.29-0.84-0.84
Coppin St.MEAC3.913.9110.0010.00-3.12-3.12
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.432.4353.3353.330.160.16
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.412.4158.0658.060.390.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.342.3451.7251.720.080.08
Florida A&MMEAC2.322.3221.8821.88-1.31-1.31
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.262.2617.2417.24-1.48-1.48
Delaware St.MEAC2.262.266.906.90-1.95-1.95
HowardMEAC2.232.2326.6726.67-1.04-1.04
PresbyterianBSth1.871.8725.0025.00-0.93-0.93
Charleston SouthernBSth1.841.8444.4444.44-0.20-0.20
WinthropBSth1.811.8155.5655.560.200.20
North Carolina St.ACC1.801.8064.5264.520.520.52
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7539.2939.29-0.37-0.37
WisconsinB101.721.7243.7543.75-0.22-0.22
Boston CollegeACC1.721.7254.5554.550.160.16
UCLAP121.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
FurmanSC1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
Central ArkansasSlnd1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
YaleIvy1.691.6948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA1.671.6776.6776.670.890.89
UCFAmer1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Gardner WebbBSth0.310.3137.9337.93-0.08-0.08
Georgia TechACC0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
RadfordBSth0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
LibertyBSth0.230.2354.8454.840.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
High PointBSth0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.190.1988.2488.240.140.14
VirginiaACC0.190.1993.9493.940.160.16
CampbellBSth0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.180.1813.3313.33-0.13-0.13
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
PennIvy0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
George WashingtonA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
West VirginiaB120.130.1370.5970.590.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Michigan St.B100.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
OregonP120.130.1364.7164.710.040.04
NebraskaB100.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
ClemsonACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Little RockSB0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MercerSC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1080.0080.000.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
LipscombASun0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
StanfordP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
NJITASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0382.7682.760.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
TexasB120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01